>

Home Depot Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

<div class='circular--portrait' style='background:#FCD202;color: white;font-size:3em;padding-top: 40px;;'>HOM</div>
HD -- USA Stock  

Earnings Report: May 19, 2020  

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Home Depot historic stock prices and determine the direction of Home Depot future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Home Depot historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Home Depot systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Home Depot fundamentals over time. Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Home Depot to cross-verify your projections.
Equity
Refresh
Triple exponential smoothing for Home Depot - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Home Depot prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Home Depot price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Home Depot.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Home Depot on the next trading day is expected to be 244.915054

Home Depot Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Home Depot | Home Depot Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice 

Home Depot Forecasted Value

Market Value
245.34
February 26, 2020
242.07
Downside
244.92
Expected Value
247.76
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.4103
MADMean absolute deviation2.0135
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0088
SAESum of the absolute errors120.8109
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Home Depot observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Home Depot observations.

Volatility Measures

Home Depot Risk Indicators

Current Sentiment - HD

Home Depot Investor Sentiment

Nearly all of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on Home Depot. What is your judgment towards investing in Home Depot? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
Skip

Build Optimal Portfolios

Align your risk with return expectations

Fix your portfolio
By capturing your risk tolerance and investment horizon Macroaxis technology of instant portfolio optimization will compute exactly how much risk is acceptable for your desired return expectations
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Home Depot to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Bollinger Bands module to use bollinger bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.