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Home Depot Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

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HD -- USA Stock  

Earnings Report: May 19, 2020  

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Home Depot historic stock prices and determine the direction of Home Depot future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Home Depot historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Home Depot systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Home Depot fundamentals over time. Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Home Depot to cross-verify your projections.
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Home Depot simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Home Depot are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Home Depot prices get older.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Home Depot on the next trading day is expected to be 245.34

Home Depot Stock Forecast Pattern

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Home Depot Forecasted Value

Market Value
245.34
February 26, 2020
242.49
Downside
245.34
Expected Value
248.19
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria119.8612
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.3662
MADMean absolute deviation1.8652
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0082
SAESum of the absolute errors113.78
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Home Depot forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Home Depot observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Volatility Measures

Home Depot Risk Indicators

Current Sentiment - HD

Home Depot Investor Sentiment

Nearly all of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on Home Depot. What is your judgment towards investing in Home Depot? Are you bullish or bearish?
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98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Home Depot to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .