Home Depot Naive Prediction

<div class='circular--portrait' style='background:#FCD202;color: white;font-size:3em;padding-top: 35px;;'>HOM</div>
HD -- USA Stock  

Fiscal Quarter End: January 31, 2020  

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Home Depot historic prices and determine the direction of Home Depot future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Home Depot historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Home Depot systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Home Depot fundamentals over time. Plese check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Home Depot to cross-verify your projections.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
A naive forecasting model for Home Depot is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Home Depot value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Home Depot on the next trading day is expected to be 237.36821

Home Depot Prediction Pattern

Backtest Home Depot | Home Depot Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice 

Home Depot Forecasted Value

Market Value
January 23, 2020
Expected Value

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria120.3895
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.4039
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0107
SAESum of the absolute errors146.6403
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Home Depot. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Volatility Measures

Home Depot Risk Indicators