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Phoenix New Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

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FENG -- USA Stock  

USD 1.97  0.02  1.03%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Phoenix New historic stock prices and determine the direction of Phoenix New Media Limited future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Phoenix New historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Phoenix New Media Limited systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Phoenix New fundamentals over time. Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Phoenix New to cross-verify your projections.
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A naive forecasting model for Phoenix New is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Phoenix New Media Limited value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Phoenix New Media Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 2.063306

Phoenix New Stock Forecast Pattern

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Phoenix New Forecasted Value

Market Value
1.97
February 18, 2020
0.0197
Downside
2.06
Expected Value
17.82
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria116.6546
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1255
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0491
SAESum of the absolute errors7.7805
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Phoenix New Media Limited. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Volatility Measures

Phoenix New Risk Indicators