Facebook Triple Exponential Smoothing

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Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Facebook historic prices and determine the direction of Facebook future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Facebook historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Facebook systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Facebook fundamentals over time. Plese check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Facebook to cross-verify your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
Triple exponential smoothing for Facebook - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Facebook prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Facebook price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Facebook.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Facebook on the next trading day is expected to be 217.681179

Facebook Prediction Pattern

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Facebook Forecasted Value

Market Value
219.76
January 26, 2020
214.59
Downside
217.68
Expected Value
220.78
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.3578
MADMean absolute deviation1.8595
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0092
SAESum of the absolute errors109.713
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Facebook observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Facebook observations.

Volatility Measures

Facebook Risk Indicators