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Facebook Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

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FB -- USA Stock  

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Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Facebook historic stock prices and determine the direction of Facebook future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Facebook historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Facebook systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Facebook fundamentals over time. Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Facebook to cross-verify your projections.
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A naive forecasting model for Facebook is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Facebook value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Facebook on the next trading day is expected to be 207.99308

Facebook Stock Forecast Pattern

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Facebook Forecasted Value

Market Value
210.18
February 26, 2020
203.06
Downside
207.99
Expected Value
212.93
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria122.8645
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation3.3778
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0161
SAESum of the absolute errors209.4245
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Facebook. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Volatility Measures

Facebook Risk Indicators

Current Sentiment - FB

Facebook Investor Sentiment

Nearly all of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on Facebook. What is your opinion about investing in Facebook? Are you bullish or bearish?
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2% Bearish
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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Facebook to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.