Facebook Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction All EquitiesStocksUSA Stock Facebook

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A naive forecasting model for Facebook is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Facebook value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Given 30 days horizon, the value of Facebook on the next trading day is expected to be 207.99308

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Model Predictive Factors

This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Facebook. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.