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Citigroup Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

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C -- USA Stock  

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Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Citigroup historic stock prices and determine the direction of Citigroup future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Citigroup historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Citigroup systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Citigroup fundamentals over time. Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Citigroup to cross-verify your projections.
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Triple exponential smoothing for Citigroup - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Citigroup prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Citigroup price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Citigroup.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Citigroup on the next trading day is expected to be 76.047614

Citigroup Stock Forecast Pattern

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Citigroup Forecasted Value

Market Value
76.44
February 26, 2020
76.05
Expected Value
80.43
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.2082
MADMean absolute deviation0.9767
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0127
SAESum of the absolute errors58.5994
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Citigroup observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Citigroup observations.

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Citigroup Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Citigroup and Canadian Imperial Bank. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
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Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Citigroup to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Focused Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.