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Babcock Wilcox Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

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BW -- USA Stock  

USD 4.15  0.09  2.12%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Babcock Wilcox historic stock prices and determine the direction of Babcock Wilcox Enterprises I future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Babcock Wilcox historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Babcock Wilcox Enterprises I systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Babcock Wilcox fundamentals over time. Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Babcock Wilcox to cross-verify your projections.
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Triple exponential smoothing for Babcock Wilcox - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Babcock Wilcox prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Babcock Wilcox price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Babcock Wilcox Enter.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Babcock Wilcox Enterprises I on the next trading day is expected to be 4.109758

Babcock Wilcox Stock Forecast Pattern

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Babcock Wilcox Forecasted Value

Market Value
4.15
February 28, 2020
0.0415
Downside
4.11
Expected Value
14.63
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0033
MADMean absolute deviation0.1079
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0266
SAESum of the absolute errors6.3653
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Babcock Wilcox observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Babcock Wilcox Enterprises I observations.

Volatility Measures

Babcock Wilcox Risk Indicators

Current Sentiment - BW

Babcock Wilcox Enter Investor Sentiment

Larger part of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on Babcock Wilcox Enterprises I. What is your opinion about investing in Babcock Wilcox Enterprises I? Are you bullish or bearish?
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Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Babcock Wilcox Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Babcock Wilcox and Ampco Pittsburgh. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
Run Pair Correlation  
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Babcock Wilcox to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Chance of Distress module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.