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Bunge Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

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BG -- USA Stock  

Fiscal Quarter End: March 31, 2020  

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Bunge historic stock prices and determine the direction of Bunge Limited future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Bunge historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Bunge Limited systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Bunge fundamentals over time. Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bunge to cross-verify your projections.
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A naive forecasting model for Bunge is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Bunge Limited value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Bunge Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 54.317039

Bunge Stock Forecast Pattern

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Bunge Forecasted Value

Market Value
53.88
February 20, 2020
54.32
Expected Value
58.03
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria117.7079
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.5991
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.011
SAESum of the absolute errors36.5428
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Bunge Limited. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

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Bunge Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Bunge and Archer Daniels Midland. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
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Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bunge to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. drill down to analyze hype elasticity.