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Best Buy Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

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BBY -- USA Stock  

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Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Best Buy historic stock prices and determine the direction of Best Buy Co future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Best Buy historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Best Buy Co systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Best Buy fundamentals over time. Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Best Buy to cross-verify your projections.
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A naive forecasting model for Best Buy is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Best Buy Co value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Best Buy Co on the next trading day is expected to be 81.286594

Best Buy Stock Forecast Pattern

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Best Buy Forecasted Value

Market Value
85.50
February 27, 2020
81.29
Expected Value
85.67
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria120.7933
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.2002
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0138
SAESum of the absolute errors74.4151
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Best Buy Co. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

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Best Buy Risk Indicators

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Best Buy Pair Correlation

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Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Best Buy and Acorn International. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
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Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Best Buy to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.