Axos Financial Triple Exponential Smoothing

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AX -- USA Stock  

Earning Report: January 29, 2020  

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Axos Financial historic prices and determine the direction of Axos Financial future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Axos Financial historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Axos Financial systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Axos Financial fundamentals over time. Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Axos Financial to cross-verify your projections.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
Triple exponential smoothing for Axos Financial - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Axos Financial prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Axos Financial price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Axos Financial.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Axos Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 30.506989

Axos Financial Prediction Pattern

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Axos Financial Forecasted Value

Market Value
January 19, 2020
Expected Value

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0876
MADMean absolute deviation0.3951
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0136
SAESum of the absolute errors23.3105
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Axos Financial observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Axos Financial observations.

Volatility Measures

Axos Financial Risk Indicators