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Apple Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

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AAPL -- USA Stock  

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Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Apple historic stock prices and determine the direction of Apple future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Apple historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Apple systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Apple fundamentals over time. Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Apple to cross-verify your projections.
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A two period moving average forecast for Apple is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Apple on the next trading day is expected to be 319.65

Apple Stock Forecast Pattern

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Apple Forecasted Value

Market Value
319.00
February 21, 2020
315.49
Downside
319.65
Expected Value
323.81
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria119.4099
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -1.3194
MADMean absolute deviation3.6104
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0119
SAESum of the absolute errors216.625
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Apple price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Apple. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting stock prices into the future

Volatility Measures

Apple Risk Indicators

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Apple Pair Correlation

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Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Apple and Hamilton Beach Brands. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
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Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Apple to cross-verify your projections. Please also try CEO Directory module to screen ceos from public companies around the world.