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Apple Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

<div class='circular--portrait' style='background:#000000;color: white;font-size:3em;padding-top: 40px;;'>AAP</div>
AAPL -- USA Stock  

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Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Apple historic stock prices and determine the direction of Apple future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Apple historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Apple systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Apple fundamentals over time. Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Apple to cross-verify your projections.
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Apple simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Apple are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Apple prices get older.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Apple on the next trading day is expected to be 319.0

Apple Stock Forecast Pattern

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Apple Forecasted Value

Market Value
319.00
February 21, 2020
314.84
Downside
319.00
Expected Value
323.16
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria121.0409
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.8969
MADMean absolute deviation3.2454
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0107
SAESum of the absolute errors197.97
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Apple forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Apple observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Volatility Measures

Apple Risk Indicators

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Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Apple to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.