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Apple Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

<div class='circular--portrait' style='background:#000000;color: white;font-size:3em;padding-top: 40px;;'>AAP</div>
AAPL -- USA Stock  

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Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Apple historic stock prices and determine the direction of Apple future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Apple historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Apple systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Apple fundamentals over time. Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Apple to cross-verify your projections.
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Apple polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Apple as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Apple on the next trading day is expected to be 314.145693

Apple Stock Forecast Pattern

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Apple Forecasted Value

Market Value
311.30
February 21, 2020
309.98
Downside
314.15
Expected Value
318.31
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria121.0505
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation3.3387
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0111
SAESum of the absolute errors203.6604
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Apple historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Volatility Measures

Apple Risk Indicators

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Apple Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Apple and Hamilton Beach Brands. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
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Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Apple to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.