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Apple Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

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AAPL -- USA Stock  

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Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Apple historic stock prices and determine the direction of Apple future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Apple historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Apple systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Apple fundamentals over time. Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Apple to cross-verify your projections.
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A naive forecasting model for Apple is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Apple value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Apple on the next trading day is expected to be 318.512101

Apple Stock Forecast Pattern

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Apple Forecasted Value

Market Value
313.05
February 21, 2020
314.35
Downside
318.51
Expected Value
322.68
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria120.7627
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.8308
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0093
SAESum of the absolute errors172.6785
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Apple. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Volatility Measures

Apple Risk Indicators

Current Sentiment - AAPL

Apple Investor Sentiment

Majority of Macroaxis users are presently bullish on Apple. What is your sentiment towards investing in Apple? Are you bullish or bearish?
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98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Apple Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Apple and Hamilton Beach Brands. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
Run Pair Correlation  
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Apple to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Bollinger Bands module to use bollinger bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.