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Apple Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

<div class='circular--portrait' style='background:#000000;color: white;font-size:3em;padding-top: 40px;;'>AAP</div>
AAPL -- USA Stock  

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Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Apple historic stock prices and determine the direction of Apple future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Apple historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Apple systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Apple fundamentals over time. Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Apple to cross-verify your projections.
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A four-period moving average forecast model for Apple is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Apple on the next trading day is expected to be 318.9925

Apple Stock Forecast Pattern

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Apple Forecasted Value

Market Value
313.05
February 21, 2020
314.83
Downside
318.99
Expected Value
323.16
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria114.1365
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -2.2694
MADMean absolute deviation4.4088
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0147
SAESum of the absolute errors251.3025
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Apple. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Apple and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Volatility Measures

Apple Risk Indicators

Current Sentiment - AAPL

Apple Investor Sentiment

Majority of Macroaxis users are presently bullish on Apple. What is your sentiment towards investing in Apple? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Apple Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Apple and Hamilton Beach Brands. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
Run Pair Correlation  
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Apple to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.