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NASDAQ Composite Index Forecast - Naive Prediction

XCM
XCMP -- USA Index  

 11,417  129.15  1.12%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast NASDAQ Composite historic stock prices and determine the direction of NASDAQ Composite Total Return I future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of NASDAQ Composite historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out fundamental analysis of NASDAQ Composite to check your projections.
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A naive forecasting model for NASDAQ Composite is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of NASDAQ Composite Total Return I value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of NASDAQ Composite Total Return I on the next trading day is expected to be 11630.123228

NASDAQ Composite Index Forecast Pattern

NASDAQ Composite Forecasted Value

Market Value
11,417
February 20, 2020
11,627
Downside
11,630
Expected Value
11,633
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria127.5752
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation77.9459
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0072
SAESum of the absolute errors4754.6981
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of NASDAQ Composite Total Return I. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Volatility Measures

NASDAQ Composite Risk Indicators

Current Sentiment - XCMP

NASDAQ Composite Total Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis traders are unemotional in their take regarding direction of NASDAQ Composite Total Return I Index. What is your trading attitude regarding investing in USA companies? Are you bullish or bearish on NASDAQ Composite Total Return I?
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Check out fundamental analysis of NASDAQ Composite to check your projections. Please also try Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm.