IBEX 35 Simple Regression

IBEX -- Spain Index  

 9,628  64.70  0.68%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast IBEX 35 historic prices and determine the direction of IBEX 35 future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of IBEX 35 historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. See also fundamental analysis of IBEX 35 to check your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through IBEX 35 price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of IBEX 35 on the next trading day is expected to be 9419.642623

IBEX 35 Prediction Pattern

IBEX 35 Forecasted Value

Market Value
9,628
December 16, 2019
9,420
Expected Value
9,424
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria128.1753
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation122.0802
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0133
SAESum of the absolute errors7446.8895
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as IBEX 35 historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Volatility Measures

IBEX 35 Risk Indicators

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