IBEX 35 4 Period Moving Average

IBEX -- Spain Index  

 9,564  95.20  1.01%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast IBEX 35 historic prices and determine the direction of IBEX 35 future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of IBEX 35 historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. See also fundamental analysis of IBEX 35 to check your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
A four-period moving average forecast model for IBEX 35 is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of IBEX 35 on the next trading day is expected to be 9428.075

IBEX 35 Prediction Pattern

IBEX 35 Forecasted Value

Market Value
9,564
December 13, 2019
9,428
Expected Value
9,432
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria120.6476
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -17.4268
MADMean absolute deviation103.0022
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0112
SAESum of the absolute errors5871.125
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of IBEX 35. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for IBEX 35 and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Volatility Measures

IBEX 35 Risk Indicators

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