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Facebook Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 189.84

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FB -- USA Stock  

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Facebook probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Facebook performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Facebook time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Facebook odds to be computed. Please check Facebook Backtesting, Facebook Valuation, Facebook Correlation, Facebook Hype Analysis, Facebook Volatility, Facebook History as well as Facebook Performance.
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Facebook Target Price Odds to finish below 189.84

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 189.84  or more in 30 days
 210.18 30 days 189.84 
about 1.03
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Facebook to drop to $ 189.84  or more in 30 days from now is about 1.03 (This Facebook probability density function shows the probability of Facebook Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Facebook price to stay between $ 189.84  and its current price of $210.18 at the end of the 30-day period is about 55.05 .
Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, Facebook has beta of -0.0425 suggesting as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Facebook are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Facebook is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0832 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0832% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Facebook Price Density 
    
  Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.08
β
Beta against DOW=0.04
σ
Overall volatility
=8.26
Ir
Information ratio =0.025327

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Over 79.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Facebook exotic insider transaction detected

FacebookPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out0.94%
Short Percent Of Float1.12%
Float Shares2.39B
Shares Short Prior Month26.82M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day14.84M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month14.56M
Date Short InterestJanuary 31, 2020