Microsoft Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

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Microsoft Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Microsoft historical stock prices and determine the direction of Microsoft future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Microsoft historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Microsoft naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Microsoft systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Microsoft fundamentals over time. Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Microsoft to cross-verify your projections.

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Microsoft PPandE Turnover is comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the last year. Microsoft reported PPandE Turnover of 4.39 in 2019. Receivables Turnover is likely to grow to 5.50 in 2020, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 14.70 in 2020. . Microsoft Weighted Average Shares is comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the last year. Microsoft reported Weighted Average Shares of 6.91 Billion in 2019. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to grow to about 7.3 B in 2020, whereas Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to drop (17 B) in 2020.
A naive forecasting model for Microsoft is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Microsoft value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Microsoft Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of May

Given 30 days horizon, the forecasted value of Microsoft on the next trading day is expected to be  183.22  with a mean absolute deviation of  3.72 , mean absolute percentage error of  22.60 , and the sum of the absolute errors of  227.06 
 183.22 

Microsoft Stock Forecast Pattern

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Microsoft Forecasted Value

Market Value
181.81
27th of May 2020
178.79
Downside
183.22
Expected Value
187.66
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria121.2283
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation3.7223
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0232
SAESum of the absolute errors227.0612
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Microsoft. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Microsoft. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Microsoft

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Microsoft. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Earnings
Estimates (14)
LowProjected EPSHigh
5.655.695.81
Details
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
176.88181.32185.76
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
178.44182.88187.32
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
172.43180.74189.05
Details
Analysts
Consensus (24)
LowTarget PriceHigh
155.00194.50220.00
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Microsoft

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Microsoft Technical and Predictive Analytics

Microsoft Market Strength Events

Volatility Measures

Microsoft Risk Indicators

Current Sentiment - MSFT

Microsoft Investor Sentiment

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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Microsoft to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Pattern Recognition module to use different pattern recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
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