Fidelity Contrafund Fund Market Value
| FCNTX Fund | USD 18.16 0.31 1.68% |
| Symbol | Fidelity |
Fidelity Contrafund 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Fidelity Contrafund's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Fidelity Contrafund.
| 02/26/2024 |
| 04/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Fidelity Contrafund on February 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Fidelity Contrafund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Fidelity Contrafund over 60 days. Fidelity Contrafund is related to or competes with Fidelity Freedom, Fidelity Puritan, Fidelity Pennsylvania, Fidelity Freedom, Fidelity Freedom, Aggressive Growth, and Growth Allocation. The fund normally invests primarily in common stocks More
Fidelity Contrafund Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Fidelity Contrafund's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Fidelity Contrafund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.87 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0668 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.88 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.38) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.7 |
Fidelity Contrafund Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Fidelity Contrafund's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Fidelity Contrafund's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Fidelity Contrafund historical prices to predict the future Fidelity Contrafund's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0986 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0676 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0178 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0796 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.144 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fidelity Contrafund's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Fidelity Contrafund Backtested Returns
We consider Fidelity Contrafund very steady. Fidelity Contrafund secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0878, which denotes the fund had a 0.0878% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Fidelity Contrafund, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm Fidelity Contrafund's Mean Deviation of 0.7682, coefficient of variation of 659.73, and Downside Deviation of 0.87 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0953%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.02, which means a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Fidelity Contrafund returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Fidelity Contrafund is expected to follow.
Auto-correlation | -0.74 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
Fidelity Contrafund has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Fidelity Contrafund time series from 26th of February 2024 to 27th of March 2024 and 27th of March 2024 to 26th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Fidelity Contrafund price movement. The serial correlation of -0.74 indicates that around 74.0% of current Fidelity Contrafund price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.74 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.61 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.1 |
Fidelity Contrafund lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Fidelity Contrafund mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Fidelity Contrafund's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Fidelity Contrafund returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Fidelity Contrafund has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Fidelity Contrafund regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Fidelity Contrafund mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Fidelity Contrafund mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Fidelity Contrafund mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Fidelity Contrafund Lagged Returns
When evaluating Fidelity Contrafund's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Fidelity Contrafund mutual fund have on its future price. Fidelity Contrafund autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Fidelity Contrafund autocorrelation shows the relationship between Fidelity Contrafund mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Fidelity Contrafund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Fidelity Contrafund in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Fidelity Contrafund's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Fidelity Contrafund options trading.
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Fidelity Contrafund technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.