Ultralife Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 9.88
| ULBI Stock | USD 12.55 0.01 0.08% |
Closest to current price Ultralife long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Ultralife |
Ultralife Target Price Odds to finish over 9.88
The tendency of Ultralife Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 9.88 in 90 days |
| 12.55 | 90 days | 9.88 | about 23.12 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ultralife to stay above $ 9.88 in 90 days from now is about 23.12 (This Ultralife probability density function shows the probability of Ultralife Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ultralife price to stay between $ 9.88 and its current price of $12.55 at the end of the 90-day period is about 22.99 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.71 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Ultralife will likely underperform. Additionally Ultralife has an alpha of 0.8573, implying that it can generate a 0.86 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Ultralife Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Ultralife
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ultralife. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ultralife's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ultralife Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ultralife is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ultralife's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ultralife, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ultralife within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.86 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.71 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.17 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.17 |
Ultralife Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ultralife for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ultralife can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Ultralife is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Ultralife appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Ultralife is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 70.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from insidermonkey.com: Ultralife Corporation Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript |
Ultralife Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ultralife Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ultralife's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ultralife's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 10.3 M |
Ultralife Technical Analysis
Ultralife's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ultralife Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ultralife. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ultralife Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ultralife Predictive Forecast Models
Ultralife's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ultralife's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ultralife's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ultralife
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ultralife for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ultralife help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Ultralife is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Ultralife appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Ultralife is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 70.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from insidermonkey.com: Ultralife Corporation Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript |
Check out Ultralife Backtesting, Ultralife Valuation, Ultralife Correlation, Ultralife Hype Analysis, Ultralife Volatility, Ultralife History as well as Ultralife Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Ultralife Stock please use our How to Invest in Ultralife guide.Note that the Ultralife information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ultralife's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Complementary Tools for Ultralife Stock analysis
When running Ultralife's price analysis, check to measure Ultralife's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ultralife is operating at the current time. Most of Ultralife's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ultralife's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ultralife's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ultralife to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ultralife's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ultralife. If investors know Ultralife will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ultralife listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 5.898 | Earnings Share 0.64 | Revenue Per Share 10.36 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.314 | Return On Assets 0.048 |
The market value of Ultralife is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ultralife that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ultralife's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ultralife's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ultralife's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ultralife's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ultralife's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ultralife is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ultralife's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.