Selective Insurance Group Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 102.49
| SIGI Stock | USD 96.41 0.64 0.67% |
Closest to current price Selective long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Selective |
Selective Insurance Target Price Odds to finish below 102.49
The tendency of Selective Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 102.49 after 90 days |
| 96.41 | 90 days | 102.49 | about 44.88 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Selective Insurance to stay under $ 102.49 after 90 days from now is about 44.88 (This Selective Insurance Group probability density function shows the probability of Selective Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Selective Insurance price to stay between its current price of $ 96.41 and $ 102.49 at the end of the 90-day period is about 44.69 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Selective Insurance has a beta of 0.32. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Selective Insurance average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Selective Insurance Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Selective Insurance Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Selective Insurance Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Selective Insurance
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Selective Insurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Selective Insurance's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Selective Insurance Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Selective Insurance is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Selective Insurance's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Selective Insurance Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Selective Insurance within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.16 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.32 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.55 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Selective Insurance Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Selective Insurance for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Selective Insurance can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Selective Insurance generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company currently holds 503.95 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.19, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Selective Insurance has a current ratio of 0.32, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Selective Insurance until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Selective Insurance's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Selective Insurance sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Selective to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Selective Insurance's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 85.0% of Selective Insurance shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Selective Insurance Q1 Earnings Miss, Premiums Rise YY |
Selective Insurance Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Selective Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Selective Insurance's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Selective Insurance's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 61 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 820.6 M |
Selective Insurance Technical Analysis
Selective Insurance's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Selective Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Selective Insurance Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Selective Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Selective Insurance Predictive Forecast Models
Selective Insurance's time-series forecasting models is one of many Selective Insurance's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Selective Insurance's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Selective Insurance
Checking the ongoing alerts about Selective Insurance for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Selective Insurance help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Selective Insurance generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company currently holds 503.95 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.19, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Selective Insurance has a current ratio of 0.32, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Selective Insurance until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Selective Insurance's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Selective Insurance sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Selective to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Selective Insurance's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 85.0% of Selective Insurance shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Selective Insurance Q1 Earnings Miss, Premiums Rise YY |
Check out Selective Insurance Backtesting, Selective Insurance Valuation, Selective Insurance Correlation, Selective Insurance Hype Analysis, Selective Insurance Volatility, Selective Insurance History as well as Selective Insurance Performance. Note that the Selective Insurance information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Selective Insurance's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
Complementary Tools for Selective Stock analysis
When running Selective Insurance's price analysis, check to measure Selective Insurance's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Selective Insurance is operating at the current time. Most of Selective Insurance's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Selective Insurance's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Selective Insurance's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Selective Insurance to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Selective Insurance's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Selective Insurance. If investors know Selective will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Selective Insurance listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.12) | Dividend Share 0.95 | Earnings Share 5.67 | Revenue Per Share 72.436 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.165 |
The market value of Selective Insurance is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Selective that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Selective Insurance's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Selective Insurance's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Selective Insurance's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Selective Insurance's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Selective Insurance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Selective Insurance is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Selective Insurance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.