Signet Jewelers Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 108.45
| SIG Stock | USD 94.35 3.05 3.13% |
Closest to current price Signet long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
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Signet Jewelers Target Price Odds to finish over 108.45
The tendency of Signet Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 108.45 or more in 90 days |
| 94.35 | 90 days | 108.45 | about 1.32 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Signet Jewelers to move over $ 108.45 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.32 (This Signet Jewelers probability density function shows the probability of Signet Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Signet Jewelers price to stay between its current price of $ 94.35 and $ 108.45 at the end of the 90-day period is about 88.62 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Signet Jewelers has a beta of 0.95. This usually implies Signet Jewelers market returns are reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Signet Jewelers is expected to follow. Additionally Signet Jewelers has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Signet Jewelers Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Signet Jewelers
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Signet Jewelers. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Signet Jewelers' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Signet Jewelers Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Signet Jewelers is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Signet Jewelers' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Signet Jewelers, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Signet Jewelers within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.11 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.95 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.03 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Signet Jewelers Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Signet Jewelers for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Signet Jewelers can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Signet Jewelers generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Retail Detailed Look at Industry Metrics |
Signet Jewelers Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Signet Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Signet Jewelers' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Signet Jewelers' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 54 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.4 B |
Signet Jewelers Technical Analysis
Signet Jewelers' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Signet Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Signet Jewelers. In general, you should focus on analyzing Signet Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Signet Jewelers Predictive Forecast Models
Signet Jewelers' time-series forecasting models is one of many Signet Jewelers' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Signet Jewelers' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Signet Jewelers
Checking the ongoing alerts about Signet Jewelers for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Signet Jewelers help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Signet Jewelers generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Retail Detailed Look at Industry Metrics |
Check out Signet Jewelers Backtesting, Signet Jewelers Valuation, Signet Jewelers Correlation, Signet Jewelers Hype Analysis, Signet Jewelers Volatility, Signet Jewelers History as well as Signet Jewelers Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Signet Stock please use our How to Invest in Signet Jewelers guide.You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.
Complementary Tools for Signet Stock analysis
When running Signet Jewelers' price analysis, check to measure Signet Jewelers' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Signet Jewelers is operating at the current time. Most of Signet Jewelers' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Signet Jewelers' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Signet Jewelers' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Signet Jewelers to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Signet Jewelers' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Signet Jewelers. If investors know Signet will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Signet Jewelers listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.138 | Dividend Share 0.92 | Earnings Share 15.01 | Revenue Per Share 159.713 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) |
The market value of Signet Jewelers is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Signet that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Signet Jewelers' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Signet Jewelers' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Signet Jewelers' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Signet Jewelers' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Signet Jewelers' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Signet Jewelers is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Signet Jewelers' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.