Jakks Pacific Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 24.72
| JAKK Stock | USD 19.05 0.54 2.92% |
Closest to current price JAKKS long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
JAKKS |
JAKKS Pacific Target Price Odds to finish over 24.72
The tendency of JAKKS Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 24.72 or more in 90 days |
| 19.05 | 90 days | 24.72 | about 61.9 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of JAKKS Pacific to move over $ 24.72 or more in 90 days from now is about 61.9 (This JAKKS Pacific probability density function shows the probability of JAKKS Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of JAKKS Pacific price to stay between its current price of $ 19.05 and $ 24.72 at the end of the 90-day period is about 29.45 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.35 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, JAKKS Pacific will likely underperform. Additionally JAKKS Pacific has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. JAKKS Pacific Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for JAKKS Pacific
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as JAKKS Pacific. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of JAKKS Pacific's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
JAKKS Pacific Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. JAKKS Pacific is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the JAKKS Pacific's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold JAKKS Pacific, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of JAKKS Pacific within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.73 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.35 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.35 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.15 |
JAKKS Pacific Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of JAKKS Pacific for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for JAKKS Pacific can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| JAKKS Pacific generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| JAKKS Pacific has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| JAKKS Pacific is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 27.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: International Markets and Jakks A Deep Dive for Investors |
JAKKS Pacific Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of JAKKS Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential JAKKS Pacific's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. JAKKS Pacific's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 72.6 M |
JAKKS Pacific Technical Analysis
JAKKS Pacific's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. JAKKS Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of JAKKS Pacific. In general, you should focus on analyzing JAKKS Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
JAKKS Pacific Predictive Forecast Models
JAKKS Pacific's time-series forecasting models is one of many JAKKS Pacific's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary JAKKS Pacific's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about JAKKS Pacific
Checking the ongoing alerts about JAKKS Pacific for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for JAKKS Pacific help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| JAKKS Pacific generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| JAKKS Pacific has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| JAKKS Pacific is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 27.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: International Markets and Jakks A Deep Dive for Investors |
Check out JAKKS Pacific Backtesting, JAKKS Pacific Valuation, JAKKS Pacific Correlation, JAKKS Pacific Hype Analysis, JAKKS Pacific Volatility, JAKKS Pacific History as well as JAKKS Pacific Performance. For more information on how to buy JAKKS Stock please use our How to buy in JAKKS Stock guide.You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Complementary Tools for JAKKS Stock analysis
When running JAKKS Pacific's price analysis, check to measure JAKKS Pacific's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy JAKKS Pacific is operating at the current time. Most of JAKKS Pacific's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of JAKKS Pacific's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move JAKKS Pacific's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of JAKKS Pacific to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is JAKKS Pacific's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of JAKKS Pacific. If investors know JAKKS will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about JAKKS Pacific listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.53 | Earnings Share 2.79 | Revenue Per Share 68.845 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.16) | Return On Assets 0.0807 |
The market value of JAKKS Pacific is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of JAKKS that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of JAKKS Pacific's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is JAKKS Pacific's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because JAKKS Pacific's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect JAKKS Pacific's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between JAKKS Pacific's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if JAKKS Pacific is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, JAKKS Pacific's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.