First Merchants Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 33.99
| FRME Stock | USD 34.69 0.30 0.87% |
Closest to current price First long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
First |
First Merchants Target Price Odds to finish below 33.99
The tendency of First Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 33.99 or more in 90 days |
| 34.69 | 90 days | 33.99 | about 67.62 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Merchants to drop to $ 33.99 or more in 90 days from now is about 67.62 (This First Merchants probability density function shows the probability of First Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of First Merchants price to stay between $ 33.99 and its current price of $34.69 at the end of the 90-day period is about 25.21 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.56 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, First Merchants will likely underperform. Additionally First Merchants has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. First Merchants Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for First Merchants
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Merchants. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Merchants' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Merchants Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Merchants is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Merchants' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Merchants, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Merchants within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.08 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.56 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.68 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
First Merchants Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First Merchants for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First Merchants can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| First Merchants has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 76.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 15th of March 2024 First Merchants paid $ 0.34 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: First Merchants First Quarter 2024 Earnings EPS US0.80 |
First Merchants Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of First Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential First Merchants' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Merchants' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 59.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | -112.6 M |
First Merchants Technical Analysis
First Merchants' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. First Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of First Merchants. In general, you should focus on analyzing First Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
First Merchants Predictive Forecast Models
First Merchants' time-series forecasting models is one of many First Merchants' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary First Merchants' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about First Merchants
Checking the ongoing alerts about First Merchants for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for First Merchants help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| First Merchants has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 76.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 15th of March 2024 First Merchants paid $ 0.34 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: First Merchants First Quarter 2024 Earnings EPS US0.80 |
Check out First Merchants Backtesting, First Merchants Valuation, First Merchants Correlation, First Merchants Hype Analysis, First Merchants Volatility, First Merchants History as well as First Merchants Performance. For information on how to trade First Stock refer to our How to Trade First Stock guide.You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Complementary Tools for First Stock analysis
When running First Merchants' price analysis, check to measure First Merchants' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Merchants is operating at the current time. Most of First Merchants' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Merchants' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Merchants' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Merchants to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is First Merchants' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Merchants. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Merchants listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.25) | Dividend Share 1.36 | Earnings Share 3.46 | Revenue Per Share 10.629 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.10) |
The market value of First Merchants is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Merchants' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Merchants' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Merchants' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Merchants' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Merchants' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Merchants is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Merchants' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.