Fulgent Genetics Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 26.38
| FLGT Stock | USD 21.50 0.26 1.22% |
Closest to current price Fulgent long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Fulgent |
Fulgent Genetics Target Price Odds to finish over 26.38
The tendency of Fulgent Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 26.38 or more in 90 days |
| 21.50 | 90 days | 26.38 | about 1.94 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Fulgent Genetics to move over $ 26.38 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.94 (This Fulgent Genetics probability density function shows the probability of Fulgent Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Fulgent Genetics price to stay between its current price of $ 21.50 and $ 26.38 at the end of the 90-day period is about 71.14 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.51 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Fulgent Genetics will likely underperform. Additionally Fulgent Genetics has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Fulgent Genetics Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Fulgent Genetics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fulgent Genetics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fulgent Genetics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Fulgent Genetics Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Fulgent Genetics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Fulgent Genetics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Fulgent Genetics, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Fulgent Genetics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.29 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.51 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.82 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Fulgent Genetics Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Fulgent Genetics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Fulgent Genetics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Fulgent Genetics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 289.21 M. Net Loss for the year was (167.82 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 366.9 M. | |
| About 33.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from investorplace.com: FLGT Stock Earnings Fulgent Genetics Beats EPS, Misses Revenue for Q1 2024 |
Fulgent Genetics Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Fulgent Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Fulgent Genetics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fulgent Genetics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 29.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 424.2 M |
Fulgent Genetics Technical Analysis
Fulgent Genetics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Fulgent Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Fulgent Genetics. In general, you should focus on analyzing Fulgent Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Fulgent Genetics Predictive Forecast Models
Fulgent Genetics' time-series forecasting models is one of many Fulgent Genetics' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Fulgent Genetics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Fulgent Genetics
Checking the ongoing alerts about Fulgent Genetics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Fulgent Genetics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Fulgent Genetics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 289.21 M. Net Loss for the year was (167.82 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 366.9 M. | |
| About 33.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from investorplace.com: FLGT Stock Earnings Fulgent Genetics Beats EPS, Misses Revenue for Q1 2024 |
Check out Fulgent Genetics Backtesting, Fulgent Genetics Valuation, Fulgent Genetics Correlation, Fulgent Genetics Hype Analysis, Fulgent Genetics Volatility, Fulgent Genetics History as well as Fulgent Genetics Performance. For more information on how to buy Fulgent Stock please use our How to Invest in Fulgent Genetics guide.Note that the Fulgent Genetics information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Fulgent Genetics' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.
Complementary Tools for Fulgent Stock analysis
When running Fulgent Genetics' price analysis, check to measure Fulgent Genetics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fulgent Genetics is operating at the current time. Most of Fulgent Genetics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fulgent Genetics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fulgent Genetics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fulgent Genetics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Fulgent Genetics' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fulgent Genetics. If investors know Fulgent will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fulgent Genetics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.99) | Earnings Share (5.56) | Revenue Per Share 9.635 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) | Return On Assets (0.03) |
The market value of Fulgent Genetics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fulgent that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fulgent Genetics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fulgent Genetics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fulgent Genetics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fulgent Genetics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fulgent Genetics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fulgent Genetics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fulgent Genetics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.