Durect Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.84
| DRRX Stock | USD 1.16 0.17 17.17% |
Closest to current price Durect long PUT Option Payoff at Expiration
Durect |
Durect Target Price Odds to finish below 0.84
The tendency of Durect Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 0.84 or more in 90 days |
| 1.16 | 90 days | 0.84 | about 18.81 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Durect to drop to $ 0.84 or more in 90 days from now is about 18.81 (This Durect probability density function shows the probability of Durect Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Durect price to stay between $ 0.84 and its current price of $1.16 at the end of the 90-day period is about 65.25 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.78 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Durect will likely underperform. Additionally Durect has an alpha of 0.5746, implying that it can generate a 0.57 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Durect Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Durect
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Durect. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Durect's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Durect Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Durect is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Durect's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Durect, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Durect within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.57 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 2.78 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.17 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.10 |
Durect Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Durect for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Durect can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Durect is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Durect may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Durect appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Durect has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 8.55 M. Net Loss for the year was (27.62 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 16.48 M. | |
| Durect currently holds about 51.89 M in cash with (34.41 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.23. | |
| Durect has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: DURECT Corporation Announces Late-Breaking Oral Presentation at the EASL Congress 2024 to Discuss AHFIRM Phase 2b Data in Alcohol-Associated Hepatitis |
Durect Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Durect Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Durect's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Durect's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 26.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 29.7 M |
Durect Technical Analysis
Durect's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Durect Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Durect. In general, you should focus on analyzing Durect Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Durect Predictive Forecast Models
Durect's time-series forecasting models is one of many Durect's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Durect's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Durect
Checking the ongoing alerts about Durect for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Durect help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Durect is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Durect may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Durect appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Durect has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 8.55 M. Net Loss for the year was (27.62 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 16.48 M. | |
| Durect currently holds about 51.89 M in cash with (34.41 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.23. | |
| Durect has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: DURECT Corporation Announces Late-Breaking Oral Presentation at the EASL Congress 2024 to Discuss AHFIRM Phase 2b Data in Alcohol-Associated Hepatitis |
Check out Durect Backtesting, Durect Valuation, Durect Correlation, Durect Hype Analysis, Durect Volatility, Durect History as well as Durect Performance. For more information on how to buy Durect Stock please use our How to Invest in Durect guide.You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.
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When running Durect's price analysis, check to measure Durect's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Durect is operating at the current time. Most of Durect's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Durect's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Durect's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Durect to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Durect's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Durect. If investors know Durect will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Durect listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.20) | Revenue Per Share 0.326 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.20) | Return On Assets (0.44) | Return On Equity (1.39) |
The market value of Durect is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Durect that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Durect's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Durect's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Durect's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Durect's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Durect's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Durect is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Durect's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.