Arcelik AS (Turkey) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 162.0
| ARCLK Stock | TRY 173.00 8.30 5.04% |
Arcelik |
Arcelik AS Target Price Odds to finish below 162.0
The tendency of Arcelik Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 162.00 or more in 90 days |
| 173.00 | 90 days | 162.00 | about 79.51 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Arcelik AS to drop to 162.00 or more in 90 days from now is about 79.51 (This Arcelik AS probability density function shows the probability of Arcelik Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Arcelik AS price to stay between 162.00 and its current price of 173.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 18.48 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Arcelik AS has a beta of -0.19. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Arcelik AS are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Arcelik AS is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Arcelik AS has an alpha of 0.3424, implying that it can generate a 0.34 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Arcelik AS Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Arcelik AS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arcelik AS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arcelik AS's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Arcelik AS Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Arcelik AS is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Arcelik AS's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Arcelik AS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Arcelik AS within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.34 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.19 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 8.76 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.13 |
Arcelik AS Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Arcelik AS for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Arcelik AS can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 59.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Arcelik AS Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Arcelik Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Arcelik AS's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arcelik AS's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 619.1 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 34.6 B |
Arcelik AS Technical Analysis
Arcelik AS's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Arcelik Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Arcelik AS. In general, you should focus on analyzing Arcelik Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Arcelik AS Predictive Forecast Models
Arcelik AS's time-series forecasting models is one of many Arcelik AS's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Arcelik AS's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Arcelik AS
Checking the ongoing alerts about Arcelik AS for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Arcelik AS help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 59.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Check out Arcelik AS Backtesting, Arcelik AS Valuation, Arcelik AS Correlation, Arcelik AS Hype Analysis, Arcelik AS Volatility, Arcelik AS History as well as Arcelik AS Performance. You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Complementary Tools for Arcelik Stock analysis
When running Arcelik AS's price analysis, check to measure Arcelik AS's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arcelik AS is operating at the current time. Most of Arcelik AS's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arcelik AS's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arcelik AS's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arcelik AS to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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