Cinemark Holdings Stock Price Prediction
| CNK Stock | USD 32.63 0.38 1.18% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
70
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.948 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.39 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.0956 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.0494 | Wall Street Target Price 32.7 |
Using Cinemark Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cinemark Holdings from the perspective of Cinemark Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Cinemark Holdings using Cinemark Holdings' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Cinemark using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Cinemark Holdings' stock price.
Cinemark Holdings Short Interest
An investor who is long Cinemark Holdings may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Cinemark Holdings and may potentially protect profits, hedge Cinemark Holdings with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 22.3926 | Short Percent 0.3716 | Short Ratio 9.97 | Shares Short Prior Month 21.4 M | 50 Day MA 29.2076 |
Cinemark Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Cinemark Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Cinemark. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Cinemark can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Cinemark Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Cinemark Holdings' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Cinemark Holdings.
Cinemark Holdings Implied Volatility | 0.8 |
Cinemark Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Cinemark Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Cinemark Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Cinemark Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when Cinemark Holdings' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Cinemark Holdings to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Cinemark because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Cinemark Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 32.65 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Cinemark contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Cinemark Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.05% per day over the life of the 2024-12-20 option contract. With Cinemark Holdings trading at USD 32.63, that is roughly USD 0.0163 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Cinemark Holdings' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Cinemark Holdings options at the current volatility level of 0.8%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Cinemark |
Cinemark Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Cinemark Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cinemark Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Cinemark Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Cinemark Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Cinemark Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Cinemark Holdings' historical news coverage. Cinemark Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 30.90 and 34.40, respectively. We have considered Cinemark Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Cinemark Holdings is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Cinemark Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Cinemark Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Cinemark Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cinemark Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cinemark Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 1.75 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 12 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
32.63 | 32.65 | 0.06 |
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Cinemark Holdings Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of November Cinemark Holdings is traded for 32.63. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. Cinemark is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 32.65 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.06%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.24%. The volatility of related hype on Cinemark Holdings is about 552.05%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 32.71. The company reported the last year's revenue of 3.07 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 191.5 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.18 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Cinemark Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Cinemark Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Cinemark Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cinemark Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Cinemark Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cinemark Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NWS | News Corp B | (0.03) | 9 per month | 1.12 | 0.05 | 1.77 | (1.64) | 6.61 | |
| MCS | Marcus | 0.25 | 8 per month | 0.25 | 0.28 | 4.33 | (1.58) | 12.63 | |
| FWONA | Liberty Media | 1.21 | 10 per month | 1.40 | 0.03 | 2.10 | (1.69) | 8.37 | |
| WMG | Warner Music Group | (0.21) | 11 per month | 1.64 | 0.02 | 1.70 | (2.03) | 6.01 | |
| RDIB | Reading International B | (0.61) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 7.76 | (8.62) | 37.87 | |
| RSVR | Reservoir Media | (0.40) | 5 per month | 2.10 | 0.09 | 3.87 | (3.81) | 9.49 | |
| NWSA | News Corp A | 0.20 | 11 per month | 1.24 | (0) | 1.73 | (1.68) | 6.51 | |
| BATRA | Atlanta Braves Holdings, | 0.03 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 1.45 | (1.98) | 5.15 | |
| IMAX | Imax Corp | 2.30 | 10 per month | 1.71 | 0.07 | 3.24 | (3.27) | 13.67 | |
| SBGI | Sinclair Broadcast Group | 0.43 | 8 per month | 1.84 | 0.14 | 4.34 | (2.91) | 12.36 |
Cinemark Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Cinemark price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cinemark using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cinemark charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Cinemark Holdings Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Cinemark Holdings stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Cinemark Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Cinemark Holdings based on analysis of Cinemark Holdings hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Cinemark Holdings's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Cinemark Holdings's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.024 | 0.042 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.55 | 0.52 |
Story Coverage note for Cinemark Holdings
The number of cover stories for Cinemark Holdings depends on current market conditions and Cinemark Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cinemark Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cinemark Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Cinemark Holdings Short Properties
Cinemark Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Cinemark Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Cinemark Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Cinemark Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cinemark Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 152 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 849.1 M |
Check out Cinemark Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Cinemark Stock please use our How to buy in Cinemark Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Is Movies & Entertainment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cinemark Holdings. If investors know Cinemark will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cinemark Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.948 | Earnings Share 1.64 | Revenue Per Share 24.011 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.054 | Return On Assets 0.0374 |
The market value of Cinemark Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cinemark that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cinemark Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cinemark Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cinemark Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cinemark Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cinemark Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cinemark Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cinemark Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.