Trupanion Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

TRUP Stock  USD 51.16  0.43  0.85%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Trupanion on the next trading day is expected to be 56.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 155.69. Trupanion Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Trupanion price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Trupanion Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 21st of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Trupanion on the next trading day is expected to be 56.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.55, mean absolute percentage error of 9.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 155.69.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Trupanion Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Trupanion's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Trupanion Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest TrupanionTrupanion Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Trupanion Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Trupanion's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Trupanion's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 52.55 and 59.90, respectively. We have considered Trupanion's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
51.16
56.22
Expected Value
59.90
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Trupanion stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Trupanion stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.3341
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.5522
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0541
SAESum of the absolute errors155.6872
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Trupanion historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Trupanion

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Trupanion. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Trupanion's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
48.0051.7155.42
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
51.0754.7858.49
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
48.6051.7854.96
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Trupanion

For every potential investor in Trupanion, whether a beginner or expert, Trupanion's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Trupanion Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Trupanion. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Trupanion's price trends.

Trupanion Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Trupanion stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Trupanion could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Trupanion by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Trupanion Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Trupanion's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Trupanion's current price.

Trupanion Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Trupanion stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Trupanion shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Trupanion stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Trupanion entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Trupanion Risk Indicators

The analysis of Trupanion's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Trupanion's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting trupanion stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Trupanion

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Trupanion position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Trupanion will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Trupanion Stock

  0.67L Loews CorpPairCorr

Moving against Trupanion Stock

  0.7BOW Bowhead SpecialtyPairCorr
  0.54RLI RLI Corp Earnings Call TomorrowPairCorr
  0.51CNA CNA FinancialPairCorr
  0.35PGR Progressive CorpPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Trupanion could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Trupanion when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Trupanion - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Trupanion to buy it.
The correlation of Trupanion is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Trupanion moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Trupanion moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Trupanion can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Trupanion Stock Analysis

When running Trupanion's price analysis, check to measure Trupanion's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Trupanion is operating at the current time. Most of Trupanion's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Trupanion's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Trupanion's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Trupanion to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.