Primerica Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

PRI Stock  USD 281.17  5.98  2.08%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Primerica on the next trading day is expected to be 273.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.95 and the sum of the absolute errors of 180.24. Primerica Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Primerica's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
The Primerica's current Fixed Asset Turnover is estimated to increase to 59.74, while Inventory Turnover is projected to decrease to (0.07). . The Primerica's current Common Stock Shares Outstanding is estimated to increase to about 43.6 M, while Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is projected to decrease to under 329.3 M.

Primerica Cash Forecast

Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Primerica's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2007-12-31
Previous Quarter
627.3 M
Current Value
550.1 M
Quarterly Volatility
190.3 M
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Primerica is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Primerica value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Primerica Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 11th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Primerica on the next trading day is expected to be 273.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.95, mean absolute percentage error of 15.50, and the sum of the absolute errors of 180.24.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Primerica Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Primerica's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Primerica Stock Forecast Pattern

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Primerica Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Primerica's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Primerica's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 272.59 and 275.14, respectively. We have considered Primerica's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
281.17
272.59
Downside
273.86
Expected Value
275.14
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Primerica stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Primerica stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.8516
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.9548
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0105
SAESum of the absolute errors180.2416
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Primerica. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Primerica. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Primerica

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Primerica. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
279.89281.17282.45
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
253.05291.81293.09
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
286.10297.20308.29
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
200.38220.20244.42
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Primerica

For every potential investor in Primerica, whether a beginner or expert, Primerica's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Primerica Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Primerica. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Primerica's price trends.

Primerica Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Primerica stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Primerica could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Primerica by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Primerica Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Primerica's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Primerica's current price.

Primerica Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Primerica stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Primerica shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Primerica stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Primerica entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Primerica Risk Indicators

The analysis of Primerica's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Primerica's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting primerica stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

When determining whether Primerica offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Primerica's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Primerica Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Primerica Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Primerica to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Primerica Stock please use our How to Invest in Primerica guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
Is Life & Health Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Primerica. If investors know Primerica will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Primerica listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.143
Dividend Share
3.3
Earnings Share
19.93
Revenue Per Share
90.798
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.107
The market value of Primerica is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Primerica that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Primerica's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Primerica's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Primerica's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Primerica's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Primerica's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Primerica is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Primerica's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.