Allstate Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ALL Stock  USD 195.06  3.98  2.00%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of The Allstate on the next trading day is expected to be 192.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 152.57. Allstate Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Allstate's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Allstate's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Allstate fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Allstate's Fixed Asset Turnover is quite stable compared to the past year. Asset Turnover is expected to rise to 0.58 this year, although the value of Inventory Turnover is projected to rise to (0.54). . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to rise to about 471.6 M this year, although the value of Net Loss is projected to rise to (1.2 B).

Allstate Cash Forecast

To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Allstate's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1996-06-30
Previous Quarter
599 M
Current Value
816 M
Quarterly Volatility
238.8 M
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Allstate is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of The Allstate value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Allstate Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 11th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of The Allstate on the next trading day is expected to be 192.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.50, mean absolute percentage error of 10.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 152.57.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Allstate Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Allstate's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Allstate Stock Forecast Pattern

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Allstate Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Allstate's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Allstate's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 190.81 and 193.51, respectively. We have considered Allstate's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
195.06
190.81
Downside
192.16
Expected Value
193.51
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Allstate stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Allstate stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.4424
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.5011
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0131
SAESum of the absolute errors152.5701
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of The Allstate. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Allstate. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Allstate

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allstate. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
193.71195.06196.41
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
193.14194.49195.84
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
189.13199.55209.96
Details
19 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
119.82131.67146.15
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Allstate

For every potential investor in Allstate, whether a beginner or expert, Allstate's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Allstate Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Allstate. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Allstate's price trends.

Allstate Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Allstate stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Allstate could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Allstate by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Allstate Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Allstate's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Allstate's current price.

Allstate Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Allstate stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Allstate shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Allstate stock market strength indicators, traders can identify The Allstate entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Allstate Risk Indicators

The analysis of Allstate's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Allstate's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting allstate stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Allstate is a strong investment it is important to analyze Allstate's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Allstate's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Allstate Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Allstate to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Allstate. If investors know Allstate will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Allstate listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.68)
Dividend Share
3.65
Earnings Share
15.47
Revenue Per Share
236.821
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.147
The market value of Allstate is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Allstate that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Allstate's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Allstate's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Allstate's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Allstate's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Allstate's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Allstate is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Allstate's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.