Tiaa-cref Large-cap Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

TILWX Fund  USD 26.39  0.03  0.11%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Tiaa Cref Large Cap Growth on the next trading day is expected to be 26.98 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.31  and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.07. Tiaa-cref Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Tiaa-cref Large-cap stock prices and determine the direction of Tiaa Cref Large Cap Growth's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Tiaa-cref Large-cap's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tiaa-cref Large-cap to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Tiaa-cref Large-cap cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Tiaa-cref Large-cap's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Tiaa-cref Large-cap's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Tiaa-cref Large-cap price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Tiaa-cref Large-cap Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Tiaa Cref Large Cap Growth on the next trading day is expected to be 26.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.07.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tiaa-cref Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tiaa-cref Large-cap's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Tiaa-cref Large-cap Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Tiaa-cref Large-capTiaa-cref Large-cap Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Tiaa-cref Large-cap Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Tiaa-cref Large-cap's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Tiaa-cref Large-cap's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.97 and 27.98, respectively. We have considered Tiaa-cref Large-cap's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
26.39
26.98
Expected Value
27.98
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tiaa-cref Large-cap mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tiaa-cref Large-cap mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.9421
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3076
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0123
SAESum of the absolute errors19.0698
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Tiaa Cref Large Cap Growth historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Tiaa-cref Large-cap

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tiaa-cref Large-cap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Tiaa-cref Large-cap's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
25.3626.3927.42
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
24.9425.9727.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
25.5926.1326.67
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Tiaa-cref Large-cap. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Tiaa-cref Large-cap's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Tiaa-cref Large-cap's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Tiaa-cref Large-cap.

Other Forecasting Options for Tiaa-cref Large-cap

For every potential investor in Tiaa-cref, whether a beginner or expert, Tiaa-cref Large-cap's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Tiaa-cref Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Tiaa-cref. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Tiaa-cref Large-cap's price trends.

Tiaa-cref Large-cap Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Tiaa-cref Large-cap mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Tiaa-cref Large-cap could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tiaa-cref Large-cap by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Tiaa-cref Large-cap Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Tiaa-cref Large-cap's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Tiaa-cref Large-cap's current price.

Tiaa-cref Large-cap Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Tiaa-cref Large-cap mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Tiaa-cref Large-cap shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Tiaa-cref Large-cap mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Tiaa Cref Large Cap Growth entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Tiaa-cref Large-cap Risk Indicators

The analysis of Tiaa-cref Large-cap's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Tiaa-cref Large-cap's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tiaa-cref mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tiaa-cref Large-cap to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.

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When running Tiaa-cref Large-cap's price analysis, check to measure Tiaa-cref Large-cap's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tiaa-cref Large-cap is operating at the current time. Most of Tiaa-cref Large-cap's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tiaa-cref Large-cap's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tiaa-cref Large-cap's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tiaa-cref Large-cap to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Tiaa-cref Large-cap's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Tiaa-cref Large-cap is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Tiaa-cref Large-cap's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.