Smith Nephew Pink Sheet Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

SNNUF Stock  USD 12.71  0.15  1.17%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Smith Nephew Plc on the next trading day is expected to be 12.71 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.24  and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.67. Smith Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Smith Nephew stock prices and determine the direction of Smith Nephew Plc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Smith Nephew's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Smith Nephew to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Smith Nephew cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Smith Nephew's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Smith Nephew's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Smith Nephew Plc is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Smith Nephew 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Smith Nephew Plc on the next trading day is expected to be 12.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.67.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Smith Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Smith Nephew's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Smith Nephew Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Smith Nephew Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Smith Nephew's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Smith Nephew's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.94 and 14.48, respectively. We have considered Smith Nephew's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
12.71
12.71
Expected Value
14.48
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Smith Nephew pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Smith Nephew pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria108.5139
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0346
MADMean absolute deviation0.2399
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0176
SAESum of the absolute errors13.6725
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Smith Nephew. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Smith Nephew Plc and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Smith Nephew

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Smith Nephew Plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Smith Nephew's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.9412.7114.48
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.2311.0012.77
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
12.7112.7112.71
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Smith Nephew. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Smith Nephew's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Smith Nephew's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Smith Nephew Plc.

Other Forecasting Options for Smith Nephew

For every potential investor in Smith, whether a beginner or expert, Smith Nephew's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Smith Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Smith. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Smith Nephew's price trends.

Smith Nephew Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Smith Nephew pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Smith Nephew could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Smith Nephew by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Smith Nephew Plc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Smith Nephew's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Smith Nephew's current price.

Smith Nephew Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Smith Nephew pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Smith Nephew shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Smith Nephew pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Smith Nephew Plc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Smith Nephew Risk Indicators

The analysis of Smith Nephew's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Smith Nephew's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting smith pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Smith Nephew in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Smith Nephew's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Smith Nephew options trading.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Smith Nephew to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.

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When running Smith Nephew's price analysis, check to measure Smith Nephew's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Smith Nephew is operating at the current time. Most of Smith Nephew's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Smith Nephew's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Smith Nephew's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Smith Nephew to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Smith Nephew's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Smith Nephew is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Smith Nephew's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.