Starbucks Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

SBUX Stock  USD 91.50  1.14  1.26%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Starbucks on the next trading day is expected to be 89.39 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.98  and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.04. Starbucks Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Starbucks stock prices and determine the direction of Starbucks's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Starbucks' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Starbucks' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Starbucks' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Starbucks fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Starbucks to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Starbucks Stock please use our How to Invest in Starbucks guide.
  
At this time, Starbucks' Payables Turnover is fairly stable compared to the past year. Receivables Turnover is likely to rise to 38.31 in 2024, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 6.94 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to rise to about 1.6 B in 2024. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to rise to about 4 B in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-03-28 Starbucks Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Starbucks' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Starbucks' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Starbucks stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Starbucks' open interest, investors have to compare it to Starbucks' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Starbucks is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Starbucks. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Starbucks cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Starbucks' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Starbucks' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Starbucks polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Starbucks as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Starbucks Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Starbucks on the next trading day is expected to be 89.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.98, mean absolute percentage error of 1.62, and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.04.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Starbucks Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Starbucks' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Starbucks Stock Forecast Pattern

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Starbucks Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Starbucks' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Starbucks' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 88.29 and 90.48, respectively. We have considered Starbucks' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
91.50
89.39
Expected Value
90.48
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Starbucks stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Starbucks stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.4287
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.9846
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0106
SAESum of the absolute errors61.0427
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Starbucks historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Starbucks

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Starbucks. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Starbucks' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
90.4691.5592.64
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
82.3599.07100.16
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
89.8890.8491.81
Details
34 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
96.03105.53117.14
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Starbucks. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Starbucks' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Starbucks' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Starbucks.

Other Forecasting Options for Starbucks

For every potential investor in Starbucks, whether a beginner or expert, Starbucks' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Starbucks Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Starbucks. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Starbucks' price trends.

Starbucks Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Starbucks stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Starbucks could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Starbucks by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Starbucks Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Starbucks' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Starbucks' current price.

Starbucks Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Starbucks stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Starbucks shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Starbucks stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Starbucks entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Starbucks Risk Indicators

The analysis of Starbucks' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Starbucks' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting starbucks stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

When determining whether Starbucks offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Starbucks' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Starbucks Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Starbucks Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Starbucks to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Starbucks Stock please use our How to Invest in Starbucks guide.
You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.

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When running Starbucks' price analysis, check to measure Starbucks' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Starbucks is operating at the current time. Most of Starbucks' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Starbucks' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Starbucks' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Starbucks to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Starbucks' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Starbucks. If investors know Starbucks will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Starbucks listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.216
Dividend Share
2.2
Earnings Share
3.74
Revenue Per Share
32.074
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.082
The market value of Starbucks is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Starbucks that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Starbucks' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Starbucks' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Starbucks' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Starbucks' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Starbucks' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Starbucks is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Starbucks' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.