Oakmark Global Mutual Fund Forecast - Polynomial Regression

OAKWX Fund  USD 21.93  0.20  0.92%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Oakmark Global Select on the next trading day is expected to be 21.85 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.14  and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.58. Oakmark Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Oakmark Global stock prices and determine the direction of Oakmark Global Select's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Oakmark Global's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oakmark Global to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Oakmark Global cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Oakmark Global's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Oakmark Global's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Oakmark Global polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Oakmark Global Select as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Oakmark Global Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Oakmark Global Select on the next trading day is expected to be 21.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.58.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Oakmark Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Oakmark Global's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Oakmark Global Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Oakmark Global Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Oakmark Global's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Oakmark Global's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.11 and 22.58, respectively. We have considered Oakmark Global's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
21.93
21.85
Expected Value
22.58
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Oakmark Global mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Oakmark Global mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.4875
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1383
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0065
SAESum of the absolute errors8.5759
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Oakmark Global historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Oakmark Global

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oakmark Global Select. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Oakmark Global's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
21.0121.7322.45
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
19.1519.8723.90
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
21.6221.7021.78
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Oakmark Global. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Oakmark Global's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Oakmark Global's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Oakmark Global Select.

Other Forecasting Options for Oakmark Global

For every potential investor in Oakmark, whether a beginner or expert, Oakmark Global's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Oakmark Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Oakmark. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Oakmark Global's price trends.

Oakmark Global Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Oakmark Global mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Oakmark Global could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Oakmark Global by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Oakmark Global Select Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Oakmark Global's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Oakmark Global's current price.

Oakmark Global Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Oakmark Global mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Oakmark Global shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Oakmark Global mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Oakmark Global Select entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Oakmark Global Risk Indicators

The analysis of Oakmark Global's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Oakmark Global's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting oakmark mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Oakmark Global in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Oakmark Global's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Oakmark Global options trading.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oakmark Global to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.

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When running Oakmark Global's price analysis, check to measure Oakmark Global's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Oakmark Global is operating at the current time. Most of Oakmark Global's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Oakmark Global's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Oakmark Global's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Oakmark Global to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Oakmark Global's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Oakmark Global is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Oakmark Global's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.