MEDIFAST INC Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

MED Stock  USD 38.32  0.79  2.10%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of MEDIFAST INC on the next trading day is expected to be 37.18 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.95  and the sum of the absolute errors of 111.22. MEDIFAST Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast MEDIFAST INC stock prices and determine the direction of MEDIFAST INC's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of MEDIFAST INC's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MEDIFAST INC to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade MEDIFAST Stock refer to our How to Trade MEDIFAST Stock guide.
  
Most investors in MEDIFAST INC cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the MEDIFAST INC's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets MEDIFAST INC's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for MEDIFAST INC is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

MEDIFAST INC 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of MEDIFAST INC on the next trading day is expected to be 37.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.95, mean absolute percentage error of 7.85, and the sum of the absolute errors of 111.22.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MEDIFAST Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MEDIFAST INC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

MEDIFAST INC Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest MEDIFAST INCMEDIFAST INC Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

MEDIFAST INC Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting MEDIFAST INC's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MEDIFAST INC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 33.43 and 40.93, respectively. We have considered MEDIFAST INC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
38.32
37.18
Expected Value
40.93
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MEDIFAST INC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MEDIFAST INC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.8189
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 1.25
MADMean absolute deviation1.9512
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0422
SAESum of the absolute errors111.2175
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of MEDIFAST INC. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for MEDIFAST INC and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for MEDIFAST INC

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MEDIFAST INC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MEDIFAST INC's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
34.5738.3242.07
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
28.4432.1942.15
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
33.5337.6841.83
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as MEDIFAST INC. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against MEDIFAST INC's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, MEDIFAST INC's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in MEDIFAST INC.

Other Forecasting Options for MEDIFAST INC

For every potential investor in MEDIFAST, whether a beginner or expert, MEDIFAST INC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MEDIFAST Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MEDIFAST. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MEDIFAST INC's price trends.

MEDIFAST INC Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MEDIFAST INC stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MEDIFAST INC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MEDIFAST INC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

MEDIFAST INC Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of MEDIFAST INC's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of MEDIFAST INC's current price.

MEDIFAST INC Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MEDIFAST INC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MEDIFAST INC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MEDIFAST INC stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MEDIFAST INC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

MEDIFAST INC Risk Indicators

The analysis of MEDIFAST INC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MEDIFAST INC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting medifast stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether MEDIFAST INC is a strong investment it is important to analyze MEDIFAST INC's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact MEDIFAST INC's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding MEDIFAST Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MEDIFAST INC to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade MEDIFAST Stock refer to our How to Trade MEDIFAST Stock guide.
Note that the MEDIFAST INC information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other MEDIFAST INC's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.

Complementary Tools for MEDIFAST Stock analysis

When running MEDIFAST INC's price analysis, check to measure MEDIFAST INC's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MEDIFAST INC is operating at the current time. Most of MEDIFAST INC's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MEDIFAST INC's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MEDIFAST INC's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MEDIFAST INC to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is MEDIFAST INC's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MEDIFAST INC. If investors know MEDIFAST will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about MEDIFAST INC listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of MEDIFAST INC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of MEDIFAST that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of MEDIFAST INC's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is MEDIFAST INC's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because MEDIFAST INC's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect MEDIFAST INC's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between MEDIFAST INC's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if MEDIFAST INC is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MEDIFAST INC's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.