Kokoh Inti Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

KOIN Stock  IDR 70.00  3.00  4.11%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kokoh Inti Arebama on the next trading day is expected to be 71.94 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.73  and the sum of the absolute errors of 101.89. Kokoh Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Kokoh Inti stock prices and determine the direction of Kokoh Inti Arebama's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Kokoh Inti's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kokoh Inti to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Kokoh Inti cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Kokoh Inti's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Kokoh Inti's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Kokoh Inti - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Kokoh Inti prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Kokoh Inti price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Kokoh Inti Arebama.

Kokoh Inti Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kokoh Inti Arebama on the next trading day is expected to be 71.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.73, mean absolute percentage error of 5.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 101.89.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kokoh Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kokoh Inti's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Kokoh Inti Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Kokoh IntiKokoh Inti Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Kokoh Inti Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Kokoh Inti's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Kokoh Inti's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 68.55 and 75.32, respectively. We have considered Kokoh Inti's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
70.00
71.94
Expected Value
75.32
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kokoh Inti stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kokoh Inti stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.4947
MADMean absolute deviation1.727
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0229
SAESum of the absolute errors101.892
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Kokoh Inti observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Kokoh Inti Arebama observations.

Predictive Modules for Kokoh Inti

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kokoh Inti Arebama. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kokoh Inti's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
66.6170.0073.39
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
57.9361.3277.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Kokoh Inti. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Kokoh Inti's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Kokoh Inti's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Kokoh Inti Arebama.

Other Forecasting Options for Kokoh Inti

For every potential investor in Kokoh, whether a beginner or expert, Kokoh Inti's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Kokoh Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Kokoh. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Kokoh Inti's price trends.

Kokoh Inti Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Kokoh Inti stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Kokoh Inti could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Kokoh Inti by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Kokoh Inti Arebama Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Kokoh Inti's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Kokoh Inti's current price.

Kokoh Inti Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Kokoh Inti stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Kokoh Inti shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Kokoh Inti stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Kokoh Inti Arebama entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Kokoh Inti Risk Indicators

The analysis of Kokoh Inti's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Kokoh Inti's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kokoh stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Kokoh Inti in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Kokoh Inti's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Kokoh Inti options trading.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kokoh Inti to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.

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When running Kokoh Inti's price analysis, check to measure Kokoh Inti's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kokoh Inti is operating at the current time. Most of Kokoh Inti's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kokoh Inti's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kokoh Inti's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kokoh Inti to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Kokoh Inti's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Kokoh Inti is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Kokoh Inti's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.