Kraft Heinz Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

KHC Stock  USD 36.90  0.37  1.01%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kraft Heinz Co on the next trading day is expected to be 36.90 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.31  and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.61. Kraft Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Kraft Heinz stock prices and determine the direction of Kraft Heinz Co's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Kraft Heinz's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Kraft Heinz's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Kraft Heinz's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Kraft Heinz fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kraft Heinz to cross-verify your projections.
  
At present, Kraft Heinz's Payables Turnover is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Receivables Turnover is expected to grow to 17.11, whereas Fixed Asset Turnover is forecasted to decline to 4.25. . The current year's Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to grow to about 2.9 B, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is forecasted to decline to about 1.1 B.

Open Interest Against 2024-03-28 Kraft Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Kraft Heinz's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Kraft Heinz's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Kraft Heinz stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Kraft Heinz's open interest, investors have to compare it to Kraft Heinz's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Kraft Heinz is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Kraft. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Kraft Heinz cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Kraft Heinz's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Kraft Heinz's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Kraft Heinz simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Kraft Heinz Co are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Kraft Heinz prices get older.

Kraft Heinz Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kraft Heinz Co on the next trading day is expected to be 36.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.61.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kraft Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kraft Heinz's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Kraft Heinz Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Kraft HeinzKraft Heinz Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Kraft Heinz Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Kraft Heinz's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Kraft Heinz's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 35.63 and 38.17, respectively. We have considered Kraft Heinz's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
36.90
36.90
Expected Value
38.17
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kraft Heinz stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kraft Heinz stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.5955
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0132
MADMean absolute deviation0.3102
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0087
SAESum of the absolute errors18.61
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Kraft Heinz Co forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Kraft Heinz observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Kraft Heinz

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kraft Heinz. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kraft Heinz's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
35.2636.5337.80
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
32.1733.4440.18
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
36.0736.3636.65
Details
23 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
33.1736.4540.46
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Kraft Heinz. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Kraft Heinz's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Kraft Heinz's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Kraft Heinz.

Other Forecasting Options for Kraft Heinz

For every potential investor in Kraft, whether a beginner or expert, Kraft Heinz's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Kraft Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Kraft. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Kraft Heinz's price trends.

Kraft Heinz Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Kraft Heinz stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Kraft Heinz could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Kraft Heinz by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Kraft Heinz Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Kraft Heinz's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Kraft Heinz's current price.

Kraft Heinz Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Kraft Heinz stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Kraft Heinz shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Kraft Heinz stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Kraft Heinz Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Kraft Heinz Risk Indicators

The analysis of Kraft Heinz's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Kraft Heinz's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kraft stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Kraft Heinz Investors Sentiment

The influence of Kraft Heinz's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Kraft. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Kraft Heinz's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Kraft. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Kraft can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Kraft Heinz Co. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Kraft Heinz's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Kraft Heinz's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Kraft Heinz's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Kraft Heinz.

Kraft Heinz Implied Volatility

    
  27.64  
Kraft Heinz's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Kraft Heinz Co stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Kraft Heinz's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Kraft Heinz stock will not fluctuate a lot when Kraft Heinz's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Kraft Heinz in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Kraft Heinz's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Kraft Heinz options trading.

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When determining whether Kraft Heinz offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Kraft Heinz's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Kraft Heinz Co Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Kraft Heinz Co Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kraft Heinz to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Kraft Heinz information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Kraft Heinz's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.

Complementary Tools for Kraft Stock analysis

When running Kraft Heinz's price analysis, check to measure Kraft Heinz's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kraft Heinz is operating at the current time. Most of Kraft Heinz's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kraft Heinz's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kraft Heinz's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kraft Heinz to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Kraft Heinz's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Kraft Heinz. If investors know Kraft will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Kraft Heinz listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.15)
Dividend Share
1.6
Earnings Share
2.31
Revenue Per Share
21.711
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.07)
The market value of Kraft Heinz is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Kraft that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Kraft Heinz's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Kraft Heinz's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Kraft Heinz's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Kraft Heinz's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Kraft Heinz's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Kraft Heinz is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Kraft Heinz's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.