Johnson Johnson Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| JNJ Stock | USD 145.74 0.97 0.67% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Johnson Johnson on the next trading day is expected to be 143.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 81.35. Johnson Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Johnson Johnson stock prices and determine the direction of Johnson Johnson's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Johnson Johnson's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Johnson Johnson's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Johnson Johnson's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Johnson Johnson fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Johnson Johnson to cross-verify your projections. Johnson |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Johnson Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Johnson Johnson's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Johnson Johnson's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Johnson Johnson stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Johnson Johnson's open interest, investors have to compare it to Johnson Johnson's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Johnson Johnson is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Johnson. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Johnson Johnson cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Johnson Johnson's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Johnson Johnson's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Johnson Johnson is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Johnson Johnson value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Johnson Johnson Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Johnson Johnson on the next trading day is expected to be 143.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.31, mean absolute percentage error of 2.43, and the sum of the absolute errors of 81.35.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Johnson Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Johnson Johnson's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Johnson Johnson Stock Forecast Pattern
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Johnson Johnson Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Johnson Johnson's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Johnson Johnson's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 142.31 and 143.90, respectively. We have considered Johnson Johnson's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Johnson Johnson stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Johnson Johnson stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.8383 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.3121 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0084 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 81.3487 |
Predictive Modules for Johnson Johnson
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Johnson Johnson. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Johnson Johnson's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Johnson Johnson
For every potential investor in Johnson, whether a beginner or expert, Johnson Johnson's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Johnson Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Johnson. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Johnson Johnson's price trends.Johnson Johnson Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Johnson Johnson stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Johnson Johnson could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Johnson Johnson by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Johnson Johnson Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Johnson Johnson's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Johnson Johnson's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Johnson Johnson Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Johnson Johnson stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Johnson Johnson shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Johnson Johnson stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Johnson Johnson entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 180708.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.3633 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 144.47 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 144.89 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.76 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.97 |
Johnson Johnson Risk Indicators
The analysis of Johnson Johnson's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Johnson Johnson's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting johnson stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5966 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7808 | |||
| Variance | 0.6097 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Johnson Johnson Investors Sentiment
The influence of Johnson Johnson's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Johnson. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Johnson Johnson's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Johnson. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Johnson can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Johnson Johnson. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Johnson Johnson's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Johnson Johnson's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Johnson Johnson's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Johnson Johnson.
Johnson Johnson Implied Volatility | 78.41 |
Johnson Johnson's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Johnson Johnson stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Johnson Johnson's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Johnson Johnson stock will not fluctuate a lot when Johnson Johnson's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Johnson Johnson in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Johnson Johnson's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Johnson Johnson options trading.
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Complementary Tools for Johnson Stock analysis
When running Johnson Johnson's price analysis, check to measure Johnson Johnson's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Johnson Johnson is operating at the current time. Most of Johnson Johnson's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Johnson Johnson's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Johnson Johnson's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Johnson Johnson to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Johnson Johnson's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Johnson Johnson. If investors know Johnson will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Johnson Johnson listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.106 | Dividend Share 4.7 | Earnings Share 5.2 | Revenue Per Share 33.613 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.073 |
The market value of Johnson Johnson is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Johnson that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Johnson Johnson's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Johnson Johnson's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Johnson Johnson's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Johnson Johnson's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Johnson Johnson's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Johnson Johnson is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Johnson Johnson's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.