Haverty Furniture Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| HVT Stock | USD 30.41 0.14 0.46% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Haverty Furniture Companies on the next trading day is expected to be 28.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.25. Haverty Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Haverty Furniture stock prices and determine the direction of Haverty Furniture Companies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Haverty Furniture's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Haverty Furniture's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Haverty Furniture's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Haverty Furniture fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Haverty Furniture to cross-verify your projections. Haverty |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Haverty Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Haverty Furniture's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Haverty Furniture's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Haverty Furniture stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Haverty Furniture's open interest, investors have to compare it to Haverty Furniture's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Haverty Furniture is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Haverty. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Haverty Furniture cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Haverty Furniture's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Haverty Furniture's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Haverty Furniture is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Haverty Furniture Companies value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Haverty Furniture Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Haverty Furniture Companies on the next trading day is expected to be 28.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61, mean absolute percentage error of 0.61, and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.25.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Haverty Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Haverty Furniture's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Haverty Furniture Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Haverty Furniture | Haverty Furniture Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Haverty Furniture Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Haverty Furniture's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Haverty Furniture's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.66 and 30.95, respectively. We have considered Haverty Furniture's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Haverty Furniture stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Haverty Furniture stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.618 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6106 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0185 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 37.2495 |
Predictive Modules for Haverty Furniture
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Haverty Furniture. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Haverty Furniture's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Haverty Furniture
For every potential investor in Haverty, whether a beginner or expert, Haverty Furniture's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Haverty Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Haverty. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Haverty Furniture's price trends.Haverty Furniture Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Haverty Furniture stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Haverty Furniture could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Haverty Furniture by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Haverty Furniture Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Haverty Furniture's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Haverty Furniture's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Haverty Furniture Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Haverty Furniture stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Haverty Furniture shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Haverty Furniture stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Haverty Furniture Companies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Haverty Furniture Risk Indicators
The analysis of Haverty Furniture's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Haverty Furniture's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting haverty stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.66 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.15 | |||
| Variance | 4.63 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Haverty Furniture in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Haverty Furniture's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Haverty Furniture options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Haverty Furniture to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Complementary Tools for Haverty Stock analysis
When running Haverty Furniture's price analysis, check to measure Haverty Furniture's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Haverty Furniture is operating at the current time. Most of Haverty Furniture's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Haverty Furniture's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Haverty Furniture's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Haverty Furniture to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Haverty Furniture's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Haverty Furniture. If investors know Haverty will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Haverty Furniture listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.36) | Dividend Share 1.18 | Earnings Share 3.36 | Revenue Per Share 52.989 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.25) |
The market value of Haverty Furniture is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Haverty that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Haverty Furniture's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Haverty Furniture's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Haverty Furniture's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Haverty Furniture's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Haverty Furniture's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Haverty Furniture is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Haverty Furniture's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.