Home Depot Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

HD Stock  USD 385.89  5.96  1.57%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Home Depot on the next trading day is expected to be 386.54 with a mean absolute deviation of  3.48  and the sum of the absolute errors of 208.62. Home Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Home Depot stock prices and determine the direction of Home Depot's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Home Depot's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Home Depot's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Home Depot's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Home Depot fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Home Depot to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Home Stock refer to our How to Trade Home Stock guide.
  
The current year's Inventory Turnover is expected to grow to 5.25, whereas Payables Turnover is forecasted to decline to 7.52. . The current year's Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to grow to about 1.4 B. The current year's Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to grow to about 20.7 B.

Open Interest Against 2024-03-28 Home Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Home Depot's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Home Depot's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Home Depot stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Home Depot's open interest, investors have to compare it to Home Depot's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Home Depot is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Home. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Home Depot cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Home Depot's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Home Depot's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Home Depot works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Home Depot Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Home Depot on the next trading day is expected to be 386.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.48, mean absolute percentage error of 18.67, and the sum of the absolute errors of 208.62.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Home Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Home Depot's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Home Depot Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Home DepotHome Depot Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Home Depot Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Home Depot's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Home Depot's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 385.40 and 387.68, respectively. We have considered Home Depot's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
385.89
385.40
Downside
386.54
Expected Value
387.68
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Home Depot stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Home Depot stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.6978
MADMean absolute deviation3.4769
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0095
SAESum of the absolute errors208.6158
When Home Depot prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Home Depot trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Home Depot observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Home Depot

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Home Depot. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Home Depot's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
385.67386.79387.91
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
315.94317.06424.48
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
378.21383.11388.01
Details
37 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
292.60321.54356.91
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Home Depot. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Home Depot's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Home Depot's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Home Depot.

Other Forecasting Options for Home Depot

For every potential investor in Home, whether a beginner or expert, Home Depot's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Home Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Home. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Home Depot's price trends.

Home Depot Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Home Depot stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Home Depot could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Home Depot by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Home Depot Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Home Depot's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Home Depot's current price.

Home Depot Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Home Depot stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Home Depot shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Home Depot stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Home Depot entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Home Depot Risk Indicators

The analysis of Home Depot's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Home Depot's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting home stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Home Depot is a strong investment it is important to analyze Home Depot's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Home Depot's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Home Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Home Depot to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Home Stock refer to our How to Trade Home Stock guide.
Note that the Home Depot information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Home Depot's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.

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When running Home Depot's price analysis, check to measure Home Depot's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Home Depot is operating at the current time. Most of Home Depot's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Home Depot's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Home Depot's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Home Depot to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Home Depot's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Home Depot. If investors know Home will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Home Depot listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.15)
Dividend Share
8.52
Earnings Share
15.12
Revenue Per Share
152.822
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.03)
The market value of Home Depot is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Home that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Home Depot's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Home Depot's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Home Depot's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Home Depot's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Home Depot's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Home Depot is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Home Depot's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.