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Home Depot Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

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HD -- USA Stock  

Earnings Report: May 19, 2020  

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Home Depot historic stock prices and determine the direction of Home Depot future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Home Depot historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Home Depot systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Home Depot fundamentals over time. Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Home Depot to cross-verify your projections.
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A four-period moving average forecast model for Home Depot is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Home Depot on the next trading day is expected to be 241.94

Home Depot Stock Forecast Pattern

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Home Depot Forecasted Value

Market Value
245.34
February 26, 2020
239.09
Downside
241.94
Expected Value
244.79
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria114.8321
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -1.0576
MADMean absolute deviation2.451
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0107
SAESum of the absolute errors142.16
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Home Depot. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Home Depot and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Volatility Measures

Home Depot Risk Indicators

Current Sentiment - HD

Home Depot Investor Sentiment

Nearly all of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on Home Depot. What is your judgment towards investing in Home Depot? Are you bullish or bearish?
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2% Bearish
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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Home Depot to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.