Games Workshop Pink Sheet Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

GMWKF Stock  USD 125.00  2.00  1.57%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Games Workshop Group on the next trading day is expected to be 126.00 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.81  and the sum of the absolute errors of 102.89. Games Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Games Workshop stock prices and determine the direction of Games Workshop Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Games Workshop's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Games Workshop to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Games Workshop cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Games Workshop's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Games Workshop's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Games Workshop Group is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Games Workshop 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Games Workshop Group on the next trading day is expected to be 126.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.81, mean absolute percentage error of 5.57, and the sum of the absolute errors of 102.89.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Games Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Games Workshop's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Games Workshop Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Games Workshop Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Games Workshop's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Games Workshop's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 124.34 and 127.66, respectively. We have considered Games Workshop's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
125.00
124.34
Downside
126.00
Expected Value
127.66
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Games Workshop pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Games Workshop pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.4769
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1738
MADMean absolute deviation1.8051
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0144
SAESum of the absolute errors102.8925
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Games Workshop. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Games Workshop Group and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Games Workshop

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Games Workshop Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Games Workshop's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
123.34125.00126.66
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
103.34105.00137.50
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Games Workshop. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Games Workshop's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Games Workshop's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Games Workshop Group.

Other Forecasting Options for Games Workshop

For every potential investor in Games, whether a beginner or expert, Games Workshop's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Games Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Games. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Games Workshop's price trends.

Games Workshop Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Games Workshop pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Games Workshop could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Games Workshop by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Games Workshop Group Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Games Workshop's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Games Workshop's current price.

Games Workshop Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Games Workshop pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Games Workshop shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Games Workshop pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Games Workshop Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Games Workshop Risk Indicators

The analysis of Games Workshop's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Games Workshop's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting games pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Games Workshop in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Games Workshop's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Games Workshop options trading.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Games Workshop to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.

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When running Games Workshop's price analysis, check to measure Games Workshop's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Games Workshop is operating at the current time. Most of Games Workshop's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Games Workshop's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Games Workshop's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Games Workshop to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Games Workshop's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Games Workshop is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Games Workshop's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.