Freshpet Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

FRPT Stock  USD 115.86  0.15  0.13%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Freshpet on the next trading day is expected to be 115.47 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.96  and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.81. Freshpet Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Freshpet stock prices and determine the direction of Freshpet's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Freshpet's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Freshpet's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Freshpet's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Freshpet fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Freshpet to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Freshpet Stock please use our How to Invest in Freshpet guide.
  
At this time, Freshpet's Payables Turnover is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to gain to 1.38 in 2024, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 6.90 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 37.2 M in 2024. Net Loss is likely to gain to about (65 M) in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Freshpet Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Freshpet's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Freshpet's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Freshpet stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Freshpet's open interest, investors have to compare it to Freshpet's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Freshpet is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Freshpet. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Freshpet cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Freshpet's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Freshpet's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Freshpet is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Freshpet 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Freshpet on the next trading day is expected to be 115.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.96, mean absolute percentage error of 14.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.81.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Freshpet Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Freshpet's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Freshpet Stock Forecast Pattern

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Freshpet Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Freshpet's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Freshpet's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 112.64 and 118.30, respectively. We have considered Freshpet's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
115.86
112.64
Downside
115.47
Expected Value
118.30
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Freshpet stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Freshpet stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.2643
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -1.3495
MADMean absolute deviation1.9622
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0189
SAESum of the absolute errors113.81
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Freshpet. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Freshpet and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Freshpet

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Freshpet. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Freshpet's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
113.05115.86118.67
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
104.27127.06129.87
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
106.02111.16116.30
Details
18 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
79.2287.0596.63
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Freshpet. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Freshpet's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Freshpet's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Freshpet.

Other Forecasting Options for Freshpet

For every potential investor in Freshpet, whether a beginner or expert, Freshpet's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Freshpet Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Freshpet. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Freshpet's price trends.

Freshpet Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Freshpet stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Freshpet could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Freshpet by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Freshpet Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Freshpet's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Freshpet's current price.

Freshpet Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Freshpet stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Freshpet shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Freshpet stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Freshpet entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Freshpet Risk Indicators

The analysis of Freshpet's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Freshpet's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting freshpet stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Freshpet Investors Sentiment

The influence of Freshpet's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Freshpet. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Freshpet's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Freshpet. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Freshpet can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Freshpet. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Freshpet's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Freshpet's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Freshpet's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Freshpet.

Freshpet Implied Volatility

    
  31.44  
Freshpet's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Freshpet stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Freshpet's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Freshpet stock will not fluctuate a lot when Freshpet's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Freshpet in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Freshpet's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Freshpet options trading.

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When determining whether Freshpet is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Freshpet Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Freshpet Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Freshpet Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Freshpet to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Freshpet Stock please use our How to Invest in Freshpet guide.
You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.

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When running Freshpet's price analysis, check to measure Freshpet's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Freshpet is operating at the current time. Most of Freshpet's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Freshpet's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Freshpet's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Freshpet to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Freshpet's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Freshpet. If investors know Freshpet will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Freshpet listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.093
Earnings Share
(0.69)
Revenue Per Share
15.923
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.299
Return On Assets
(0.01)
The market value of Freshpet is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Freshpet that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Freshpet's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Freshpet's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Freshpet's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Freshpet's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Freshpet's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Freshpet is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Freshpet's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.