Alfa Energi Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

FIRE Stock  IDR 91.00  2.00  2.15%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Alfa Energi Investama on the next trading day is expected to be 100.49 with a mean absolute deviation of  5.18  and the sum of the absolute errors of 316.00. Alfa Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Alfa Energi stock prices and determine the direction of Alfa Energi Investama's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Alfa Energi's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alfa Energi to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Alfa Energi cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Alfa Energi's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Alfa Energi's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Alfa Energi polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Alfa Energi Investama as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Alfa Energi Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Alfa Energi Investama on the next trading day is expected to be 100.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.18, mean absolute percentage error of 44.64, and the sum of the absolute errors of 316.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alfa Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alfa Energi's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Alfa Energi Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Alfa EnergiAlfa Energi Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Alfa Energi Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Alfa Energi's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alfa Energi's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 93.99 and 107.00, respectively. We have considered Alfa Energi's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
91.00
100.49
Expected Value
107.00
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alfa Energi stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alfa Energi stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.9092
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation5.1803
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0514
SAESum of the absolute errors315.9996
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Alfa Energi historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Alfa Energi

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alfa Energi Investama. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alfa Energi's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
84.4991.0097.51
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
75.8182.32100.10
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
89.7891.6793.55
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alfa Energi. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alfa Energi's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alfa Energi's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Alfa Energi Investama.

Other Forecasting Options for Alfa Energi

For every potential investor in Alfa, whether a beginner or expert, Alfa Energi's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alfa Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alfa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alfa Energi's price trends.

Alfa Energi Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alfa Energi stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alfa Energi could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alfa Energi by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Alfa Energi Investama Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alfa Energi's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alfa Energi's current price.

Alfa Energi Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alfa Energi stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alfa Energi shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alfa Energi stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alfa Energi Investama entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Alfa Energi Risk Indicators

The analysis of Alfa Energi's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alfa Energi's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alfa stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alfa Energi to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.

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Please note, there is a significant difference between Alfa Energi's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alfa Energi is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alfa Energi's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.