Phoenix New Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
FENG Stock | USD 1.89 0.07 3.85% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Phoenix New Media on the next trading day is expected to be 1.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.26. Phoenix Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Phoenix New stock prices and determine the direction of Phoenix New Media's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Phoenix New's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Phoenix New's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Phoenix New's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Phoenix New fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Phoenix New to cross-verify your projections. Phoenix |
Open Interest Against 2025-01-17 Phoenix Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Phoenix New's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Phoenix New's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Phoenix New stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Phoenix New's open interest, investors have to compare it to Phoenix New's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Phoenix New is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Phoenix. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Phoenix New cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Phoenix New's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Phoenix New's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Phoenix New - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Phoenix New prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Phoenix New price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Phoenix New Media. Phoenix New Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Phoenix New Media on the next trading day is expected to be 1.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Phoenix Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Phoenix New's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Phoenix New Stock Forecast Pattern
Backtest Phoenix New | Phoenix New Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Phoenix New Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Phoenix New's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Phoenix New's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 9.92, respectively. We have considered Phoenix New's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Phoenix New stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Phoenix New stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0167 |
MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0722 |
MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0425 |
SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.2624 |
Predictive Modules for Phoenix New
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Phoenix New Media. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Phoenix New's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Phoenix New
For every potential investor in Phoenix, whether a beginner or expert, Phoenix New's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Phoenix Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Phoenix. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Phoenix New's price trends.Phoenix New Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Phoenix New stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Phoenix New could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Phoenix New by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Risk & Return | Correlation |
Phoenix New Media Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Phoenix New's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Phoenix New's current price.Cycle Indicators | ||
Math Operators | ||
Math Transform | ||
Momentum Indicators | ||
Overlap Studies | ||
Pattern Recognition | ||
Price Transform | ||
Statistic Functions | ||
Volatility Indicators | ||
Volume Indicators |
Phoenix New Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Phoenix New stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Phoenix New shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Phoenix New stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Phoenix New Media entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Phoenix New Risk Indicators
The analysis of Phoenix New's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Phoenix New's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting phoenix stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Mean Deviation | 4.47 | |||
Semi Deviation | 4.19 | |||
Standard Deviation | 7.85 | |||
Variance | 61.68 | |||
Downside Variance | 20.37 | |||
Semi Variance | 17.55 | |||
Expected Short fall | (5.93) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Phoenix New in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Phoenix New's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Phoenix New options trading.
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Complementary Tools for Phoenix Stock analysis
When running Phoenix New's price analysis, check to measure Phoenix New's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Phoenix New is operating at the current time. Most of Phoenix New's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Phoenix New's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Phoenix New's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Phoenix New to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Phoenix New's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Phoenix New. If investors know Phoenix will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Phoenix New listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.86) | Earnings Share (0.80) | Revenue Per Share 57.05 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) | Return On Assets (0.04) |
The market value of Phoenix New Media is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Phoenix that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Phoenix New's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Phoenix New's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Phoenix New's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Phoenix New's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Phoenix New's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Phoenix New is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Phoenix New's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.