Facebook Simple Exponential Smoothing

FB -- USA Stock  

Fiscal Quarter End: December 31, 2019  

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Facebook historic prices and determine the direction of Facebook future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Facebook historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Facebook systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Facebook fundamentals over time. Additionally see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Facebook to cross-verify your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
Facebook simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Facebook are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Facebook prices get older.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Facebook on the next trading day is expected to be 199.230944

Facebook Prediction Pattern

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Facebook Forecasted Value

Market Value
199.32
December 5, 2019
195.35
Downside
199.23
Expected Value
203.12
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria118.0217
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.2127
MADMean absolute deviation1.8239
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0097
SAESum of the absolute errors109.4366
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Facebook forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Facebook observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Volatility Measures

Facebook Risk Indicators

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